The analysis of history that Dent puts forth in The Great Depression Ahead is fascinating.  He presents his theory on economic trend lines dating back to 8,000 BC with explanations of the ups and downs of civilizations and economics. He includes a detailed analysis of present demographics, including how the aging population is going to affect the housing market for all types of homes.

Every chapter presents an incredible amount of data that leads you to a very logical conclusion:  Dent is a brilliant man with some of the best education a person can receive, including a Harvard MBA. The writing is very persuasive, as his earlier books have demonstrated. The challenge is that Dent is writing about subjects most of us are not trained in and thus we are tempted to accept his well-researched and well-presented conclusions. The problem is that most history lends itself to multiple theories as well as differing conclusions.

So what is Dent’s record of analyzing data correctly and then drawing a correct conclusion?

Well, as you would expect from an economic expert, Dent’s record is mixed. In his earlier writing he predicted that the Dow Jones Industrials would hit 40,000 but, in fact, it never even reached half of that. He also predicted that Argentina would have steady growth through 2025 but he missed the major monetary crises they have experienced. In his defense, he did correctly predict some events such as the Japanese market challenges.

To sum up, I feel that Dent presents a fascinating read but that you should take his conclusions with a grain of salt.